The Iowa caucus is today, and while Rand Paul has seen just a slight bump in recent polls, he maintains that traditional polling hasn’t captured the extent of his support, especially among young people.
On Sunday, Real Clear Politics added a poll to their election average conducted by Opinion Savvy, which includes voters contacted on their cell phones.
The results seem to vindicate Paul’s claims.
In this poll, the data provided by likely Republican caucus-goers is broken into voters contacted by landline versus those reached on their mobile devices.
Of voters polled on cell phones, Paul is tied for first place with 26.5 percent of the vote. Paul wins outright among voters between the ages of 18-29, capturing 22.5 percent of their vote.
Overall, this poll gives Paul 8.6 percent of the vote, placing him in a tie for 4th (within the poll’s margin of error).
The most telling aspect of this data is that it potentially demonstrates how little of Paul’s support has been captured in most polls. Iowans contacted by landline break for Paul at a rate of only 1.7 percent. This means that the vast majority of polls have missed out on the 26.5 percent of mobile-using Paul supporters; a significant percentage of people.
How would reporting this kind of polling data have affected the general public’s preferences in other polls? It’s probably too late to know that.
But we will learn soon whether this polling translates to support for Paul in Iowa heading into caucus night.
Paul remains confident. As he explained to Rare last week, his campaign’s overall ground game is impressive. His Super PAC’s work is extensive too. And Paul’s team is counting on the fact that college students are back from winter break and on campus, which wasn’t the case during Ron Paul’s 2008 and 2012 candidacies.
This poll reflects that Paul is the choice candidate of young Iowan Republicans, in the same way the candidate has long been claiming.
Now it’s all about turnout.