A study of polling data shows that the GOP has an even bigger edge among independents than it did in 2010, when it swept to power in the House. How will the coming fights shake out for the GOP?
From The Washington Post:
On the question of congressional preference — Which political party would you prefer controlled Congress? — independent voters in 2013 lean more heavily toward the GOP than they did in 2010, when Republicans picked up 63 seats to retake control of the House. In 2010, 40 percent of independents said they wanted a GOP-controlled Congress, while 26 percent said they wanted a Democratic-led one. In an NBC-WSJ survey from July to September of this year, 43 percent of independents said they wanted GOP control, while 25 percent preferred a Democratic House majority. (NBC-WSJ began asking the congressional-preference question for this year in July, hence the lack of a year’s worth of data.) By contrast, in 2012, when Democrats picked up eight House seats, independents were split — 35 percent Democrats, 34 percent GOP — when it came to which party they wanted to control Congress.
(Worth noting: Roberts’s analysis is based on a single question — congressional preference — over time. Although it is considered a strong, broad gauge, it should not be taken as the end all, be all of data points.)
The reason for the GOP tilt of independents? Roberts thinks it has much to do with President Obama’s faltering numbers among that group. In the third quarter of this year — July to September — 50 percent of independents surveyed by NBC-WSJ had a negative image of Obama, while 32 percent had a positive image. Six in 10 disapproved of the job he was doing overall; in particular, 63 percent disapproved of his handling of the economy. Throw in the fact that nearly three-quarters (72 percent) of independents surveyed in the third quarter of 2013 think the country is on the wrong track and it becomes clear why independents are aligning with Republicans.
Whyle Kiote @whylek
Republicans may have an edge with independent voters. Can they use it? washingtonpost.com/politics/repub…Infomandos @infomandosElie Litvin @ElieLitvin
Republicans may have an edge with independent voters. Can they use it? wapo.st/1boNJxJCHRISTOPHER WHITE @CHRISTO57512115JBWJR @GWashingtonIndeJohn @JohnG405Ira Geiger @geigernetMichael Palermo @PalermoGov
Do you think congressional Republicans will be able to capitalize on their edge among independent voters in next... fb.me/1FclEG0DBAni @SkuterP
Republicans may have an edge with independent voters. Can they use it? - The Washington Post washingtonpost.com/politics/repub…CHRISTOPHER WHITE @CHRISTO57512115Leonardo Piazza III @leopiazzaiiiEndangered Species @markljackson