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Houston-based meteorologist Eric Berger made a bold claim on his Space City Weather website:

Texas’ hurricane season is “probably over” for this year.

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With the operative word being “probably,” there are still two more months left in hurricane season, which officially ends on November 30.

That said, Berger, whose science and weather writing is sometimes featured in Ars Technica and the Houston Chronicle, respectively, seems fairly confident the worst of this year’s hurricanes are over for Texas:

“I have been told it is irresponsible to declare the Texas hurricane season ‘over’ while there remain more than two months in the Atlantic hurricane season (which officially ends on Nov. 30),” he wrote in his post. “However, let’s be real. Yes, anything can happen during tropics season, and Texas has got hit this late before. But the chance now of a tropical system, or especially a hurricane, moving into Texas is historically very low.”

Berger further claims a cold front will be moving in later this week, with minimal rainfall. He also mentions the possibility of a low system developing in the Caribbean Sea in the next 7-10 days, but clarified it will likely move toward Florida and not Texas.

Berger boasts impressive credentials when it comes to science and weather reporting, but comments on his article range from, “Thanks again for the insightful and educational reporting!” to, “Yeah, that’s great, I’ll still be over here with my hurricane kit.”

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Despite the skepticism, he concludes his post optimistically:

“The bottom line is that the Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t end for a couple more months. But I’m telling my family in Texas not to worry about the tropics any more this year, and you can take that however you’d like.”

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