Alan Sawyer
It has been a wild 14 days for alien enthusiasts. A span that is not about to end in disappointment.
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We have seen NASA scientists get excited that we have hit an impressive number of exoplanets that could host alien life. If that was not enough, we have been crafting new messages and beaming them into space hoping to get a reply.
Both may be moot points as the new estimate is that humans are unlikely to get a reply for a long, long time. Like… basically never.
Universe Today reported that the new estimate — which ranges in a pretty ridiculous way, if you ask us — indicates that aliens could get back to us in as few as 2,000 years or as many as 400,000. A range that offers zero confidence, truthfully, because anyone can put that range out for anything and probably be correct. Giving yourself 398,000 years for padding is generous at best.
Apparently they have a pretty interesting formula that we will share to try and explain the situation, it is based on what many think is a flawed Drake Equation that tracks Communicating Extraterrestrial Intelligent Civilizations (CETIs).Â
The study was published in The Astrophysical Journal.
Abstract:
‘As the only known intelligent civilization, human beings are always curious about the existence of other communicating extraterrestrial intelligent civilizations (CETIs). Based on the latest astrophysical information, we carry out Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the number of possible CETIs within our Galaxy and the communication probability among them. Two poorly known parameters have a great impact on the results. One is the probability of life appearing on terrestrial planets and eventually evolving into a CETI (fc), and the other determines at what stage of their host star’s evolution CETIs would be born (F). In order to ensure the completeness of the simulation, we consider a variety of combinations of fc and F. Our results indicate that for optimistic situations (e.g., F = 25% and fc = 0.1%), there could be 
 CETIs and they need to survive for 
 yr (
 yr) to achieve one-way communication (two-way communication). In this case, human beings need to survive 
 Myr to receive one alien signal. For pessimistic situations (e.g., F = 75% and fc = 0.001%), only 
 CETIs could be born and they need to survive for 
 Myr (
 Myr) to achieve one-way communication (two-way communication). In this case, human beings need to survive 
 Myr to receive one signal from other CETIs. Our results may quantitatively explain why we have not detected any alien signals so far. The uncertainty of the results has been discussed in detail and would be alleviated with the further improvement of our astronomical observation ability in the future.’
If you didn’t understand all of that, you are not alone. But… basically, it reads as such:
If a CETI can emerge as early as the first 25 percent of the star’s lifetime, and limiting the theory to baseline each planet carrying only a 0.1 percent chance that the life-form develops into a CETI. Under that scenario, there would be over 42,000 CETIs spread out through the galaxy.. and all in different stages of their evolution.
Which, in theory, could only require a wait time of 2,000 years to achieve two-way communication with them.Â
On the flip side of the debate, scientists believe that the sun would have to cool down much more and may have to cross to the first 75 percent of its life, which drops to a 0.001 percent probability that a CETI would emerge.
This adjustment to the theory would reduce the probability of CETIs occurring in the Milky Way to just 111, and two-way communication with one of these would happen in the next 400,000 years.Â
Or, never.
I think the physical distance is a far more significant factor than the time it takes for a civilization to become technologically capable.
time and distance may not be another civilization’s issues along with transportation. To them, the speed of light might be snail speed. and a lifetime may be eons or life and time may not come into the game at all. Our soul may die with the body but not theirs. Their soul may travel with no restrictions or govern by time…kinda puts it towards the heavenly travelers, doesn’t it…hmmm..imagine that….no wonder the angels didn’t get into explanations…
Some ets are more highly developed and they even travel base on a different energy levels than our own. It is my belief that ets are already among us and are communicating but at some different energy level that we earthly humans can not tune into at this time.
Once we learn about the different forms of life and energy levels we can gravitate to their level of existence and share their riches and earthly beings can become wiser. Probably most likely we humans will need their mentors and teachers to be raised to their level or levels of existence and I do not think we can do it alone
without their help. Ultimately we would improve our poor mortal lives by crossing over and I do think that time may be very near for humanity and many pains and woes will be no more.
If they want to help us to survive they better start quickly because nuclear war is coming
I believe, and I’m not alone with other scientist believing that in the foreseeable future, communication will be able to travel faster than the speed of light as it stands right now, as there’s no Mass in radio waves. Lightspeed travel only gets reduced by Mass, as it stands right now, Mass cannot travel faster than the speed of light. Wormholes and other factors can get around this rule and speed limit with other technological advances such as wormholes, black hole gravity and possibly bending space and time. However communication is massless and therefore it doesn’t have to abide by the same rules of relativity. Einstein’s equation says that nothing with Mass can go more than 186,000 miles per second which is the speed of light. But massless particles including radio waves theoretically can travel faster than the speed of light with virtually no speed limit with the proper technology, and the particle accelerator in Sweden has already proved that. We could already have radio signals from technologically advanced civilizations already here and just have not been able to receive them on the right frequencies and or wavelengths.. and if they did or do receive those radio messages from advanced extraterrestrial civilizations, it would be kept extremely classified. As in top secret information that only the highest officials in the government would have access to. Also how do we explain the advances human civilization have had here on Earth in the last hundred years have surpassed the advancements in the last 10,000 years. So I believe it’s possible that we could be using Extra-Terrestrial advancements here on Earth already, they’re helping us move forward technologically to the point where we’ll be able to accept their existence. Intelligent life in other solar systems could have started tens of thousands if not millions of years before Earth. We all know that the Earth is relatively Young, approximately 4 billion years old. As the rest of the Galaxy is much much older. Here on Earth during Earth’s development and aging, we’ve had ice ages, volcanic activity, even the dinosaur era. Other older solar systems may not have had that, if they’re let’s just say 10,000 years more advanced than us, imagine our advancements in the next 10,000 years. So it’s really no question they’re out there somewhere as well as civilizations that are not as advanced as us. There are lots of examples, for example how do we explain the Egyptian pyramids, built thousands of years ago that aline completely north down to a fraction of a degree? They didn’t even have the technology to build something like that in the middle of the desert, with no building materials, so how were they to get those perfectly aligned 2 ton and 3 ton stones built up to the point that they are. They actually have drawings that old that show that they had what looks like help from people from the sky. Read the book “Chariot of the gods”. Our civilization wasn’t advanced enough way back then to accept alien civilization. They weren’t intelligent enough to accept that and thought that they were God’s. I’m not sure that our civilization is ready for that yet either, however we’re getting much closer. It would cause panic worldwide, the stock market would crash, and probably world war as every Nation on Earth would want that technology. They’re intelligent enough to know when we’re ready for that, and the right governments to slowly be able to accept advanced technology. Think about it, just 25 years ago cell phones were just a fantasy, among many other things. There are so many top secret and classified pictures and government documents that can’t be explained and are classified as extraterrestrial objects from points of origin unknown. So yeah, they’re out there. Outerspace goes forever and ever, and then some, beyond the comprehension of what mankind can even conceive. And then a million billion trillion times more than that, and that’s just the beginning.. there is no end, and the human mind at this point is not able to comprehend the distance of space and time. As we evolve scientifically and advance our understanding of the cosmos, and with new technology, it’s very possible that scientists, NASA, and European and Chinese space agency’s will be able to prove life, even advanced life is elsewhere not only in our galaxy but in other distant galaxies as well. Our own galaxy The Milky Way, is thousands of light years across. And there’s no limit to the amount of galaxies in the universe, the Milky Way is less than one grain of sand on all the beaches in the world to the amount of galaxies out there and then there’s an unknown amount beyond that. So since communication is massless, that would be the first thing that is able to travel faster than the speed of light. And once we cross that milestone, there’s no end to what technology can do with communication to and from distant galaxies and solar systems and advanced civilizations.
Communication is NOT going to happen…n Here’s my take.
One…, though we are not at the extreme end of the spiral arm in which we are located, we are far enough away from the the major portions of our galaxy … we are the rural community
Two… Our ancient cultures and the oral history claim that we come from probably a dozen (more or less, I don’t care which) alien civilizations which have either helped us, created us… They are all light years away from us and none of them are even the closest star systems to us… They are light years away from each other as well. Which brings me to ask the question, ‘Why are they all choosing US as their laboratory?’ Couldn’t they have chosen something a little bit closer to themselves if life elsewhere is so damned prevalent? Perhaps we, as a culture are little more than lonely children inventing invisible friends to play with. Perhaps it may be that intelligent life (at our own level or beyond), really ISN’T as common as we think it is. Maybe intelligent life truly IS rare. I do believe that life exists out there, but why are they all humanoid? Life on earth has taught us that given enough time and separation, like species WILL evolve into different species. Life has taught us that even though a horse and a donkey can mate, the offspring cannot reproduce. Why do we think that Life among the stars has developed to a point where all those different life forms can contribute to, or even understand our foreign DNA? Especially since our own planet teaches us the time and distance create different animals from a base stock
No. Communication with extraterrestrials will no happen. the idea that wee will communicate is nothing more than the dream of a lonly child.
Simply another way to look at it…. and nobody pays attention to it because it isn’t a popular belief.
As someone who directly witnessed UFO activity, I saw a massive increase in frequency back in 2020 yet I havent seen anything this year, which only serves to contribute my suspicion its been the government behind perpetrating the mythology. If aliens truly do exist, theyd have interacted with the masses, not just government officials. I mean whose to say an otherworldly beings would recognize and/or have any respect for goverment officials and therefore agree to their terms of secrecy. Demons, in contrast, almost certainly would revel in the company of corrupt government officials, secrecy being a given.
Conspiracies can be found on isle Q.