When he’s included, Gary Johnson has been averaging around 10 percent in national polls. Some surveys even have him beating Hillary Clinton among independents.
Now, a new poll finds Johnson beating Donald Trump among minorities and Millennials in battleground states. The poll, which was done by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, surveyed 2,700 likely voters in nine battleground states.
Here are some of the key takeaways from the three-way race:
- Hillary Clinton leads with 45 percent, Trump receives 38 percent, and Johnson gets 11 percent.
- Johnson beats Trump 7 percent to 5 percent among African Americans.
- Johnson is competitive with Trump among Hispanics, receiving 12 percent to Trump’s 20 percent.
- Johnson is virtually tied with Trump among Millennials, receiving 22 percent to Trump’s 24 percent.
The poll also gives an idea of where Johnson pulls his support from. If he wasn’t in the race, 31 percent of his voters would back Hillary Clinton and 30 percent would support Trump.
The bulk of Johnson’s supporters are #NeverTrump GOPers: 52 percent of Johnson voters identify as Republicans, compared to 36 percent who call themselves Democrats, and 10 percent who view themselves as independents. Eleven percent of all Republican voters plan to support Gary Johnson, compared to 24 percent of independents and 5 percent of Democrats.
Reason’s Brian Doherty has a few more tidbits:
Some state-specific results show Johnson beating his nine-state 11 percent average in Ohio (14), Pennsylvania (13), Wisconsin (16), and Michigan (12). Johnson’s worst state among the nine is North Carolina, where he’s pulling only 8 percent.
Among the five Rustbelt States, Johnson is outperforming Trump with minorities (12-11) and millennials (28-21).
And a few more takeaways:
- Clinton leads Trump among all generations.
- Clinton leads Trump by larger margins among unmarried women than Obama did with Romney in 2012. The “marriage gap” among women is much smaller than it was in 2012.
- Women in college are the most motivated demographic to vote this year, which will heavily favor Clinton.
- Trump wins less than 50 percent of the white vote, even in a two-way race.
- Fifty-five percent of Republican voters who backed John Kasich in the primary, 24 percent of Marco Rubio supporters, and 16 percent of Cruz supporters are open to voting for Hillary.
Now, a note of caution about this particular poll. It was commissioned by various Democratic organizations, and when an internal poll is released, it’s released for a reason. Often, cross-tabs and other information needed to evaluate the poll’s validity are not released. This poll is being pushed to discourage Republicans and energize progressive activists, so judge the results accordingly.
But it’s still more proof that Gary Johnson could be in for a strong showing in November, even among non-traditional libertarian demographics.