While the political pundits wrote Donald Trump off as a serious presidential contender right after he announced, his Tuesday night win in Indiana makes him the presumptive Republican nominee.
But one map, by University of Virginia Cent for Politics director Larry Sabato, shows just what Donald Trump is up against for the general election in November.
Where the Clinton-Trump matchup starts in our Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings pic.twitter.com/IpIryVRJFZ
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) May 4, 2016
Sabato tweeted out a picture of the United States map with their electoral college votes and which candidate each state is most likely to go for. According to his calculations, Democrats will have 347, while Republicans just 191.
His calculations have not changed since he originally mapped it out a month ago.
“If anything, we wonder whether our total of 347 EVs for Clinton to 191 EVs for Trump is too generous to the GOP,” he writes Tuesday night.
Sabato suggests “negative partisanship” will be the trend at the voting booths this November.
“[P]arty polarization will probably help Trump. In the end, millions of Republicans will hold their nose and vote against Hillary and for Trump, just as millions of Democrats will put aside their hesitations about Clinton to stop Trump,” he writes.
As the political season heats up, there’s no question this map can and will change, but at the current moment Republicans, and Trump, have an uphill battle.