House Republicans in election danger zone over immigration

A large majority of constituents in the most competitive Republican districts across the nation indicated Tuesday they find immigration reform very important – and they want it now.

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The poll by Basswood Research found 70 percent of voters in the 20 most-competitive Republican-held districts facing re-election in 2014 said fixing the current immigration system is “very important.”

When asked if they preferred lawmakers to leave immigration legislation as-is, or enact “new laws that are not perfect, but do attempt to fix the serious flaws in the current system,” even more voters favored an imperfect solution to none at all by a margin of 77 percent to 15 percent.

Among the “likely general election voters” polled according to Basswood, 67 percent in favor of at least an imperfect solution identified themselves as “very conservative,” while 72 percent were either registered or affiliated Republicans.

Survey participants in total were 39 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat, and  23 percent independent, with a positive 6.7 point Republican Party preference for Congress.

The same voters in these up-for-grabs districts reported being dissatisfied with Washington overall in the study conducted from Nov. 2-3, over a month after the start of the bitter government-shutdown fight that torpedoed congressional approval ratings across the board.

Though Democrats bared a hefty 63 percent to 34 percent disapproval-approval rating, Republicans took the large brunt of the blame with an approval rating of only 27 percent and a disapproval rating of 70 percent among voters in the 20 tightest-race districts expected in 2014.

Democrats only need to gain 18 seats in 2014 to recapture the House majority and solidify control over both sides of the Capitol, with the Senate expected to keep its Democrat majority.

With a 70 percent disapproval rating and an equal 70 percent in favor of immigration reform, 20 House Republicans have a new reason to fear standing on district ground already shaken by the government shutdown.

The majority of House members asked indicate there is little chance now of the lower chamber getting to immigration reform before the end of the legislative session, while Speaker John Boehner, his leadership team, and a majority of his caucus stated over summer they will not support the comprehensive immigration reform bill passed in the Senate.

Basswood found a wide margin of support for the major provisions in the Senate bill with 80 percent supporting e-verify, 78 percent supporting the DREAM Act, 71 percent supporting a pathway to citizenship, 72 percent support increasing fines for hiring undocumented workers, 67 percent want increased border patrol and fencing, and 62 percent support high-tech legal immigration.

Seventy-six percent favor a pathway to citizenship for the nation’s 11 million undocumented immigrants with or without increased border security provisions.

The 20 most-competitive districts surveyed were CA-10, CA-21, CO-6, FL-2, FL-10, IA-3, IL-13, IN-2, MI-1, MI-7, MI-11, MN-2, NE-2, NV-3, NY-11, NY-19, NY-23, OH-6, OH-14 and PA-8.

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