In a recent foreign policy interview with the Weekly Standard, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham hinted that his sights might be set on the White House in 2016.
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While most likely only a consideration at this point, one has to wonder what a Lindsey Graham presidential bid might look like and what the purpose would actually be.
A defining characteristic of Graham’s career in Washington has been his aggressive advocacy for foreign interventionism, frequently arguing for full-scale military responses to international events whether they have any clear bearing on U.S. security interests or not.
“If I get through my general election, if nobody steps up in the presidential mix, if nobody’s out there talking—me and McCain have been talking—I may just jump in to get to make these arguments,” Graham said.
So would Graham really be entering the race to win the presidency, or just to “make [his] arguments” for military adventurism on a high profile stage in hopes of educating the American public?
If the latter is true, Graham would, in a way, be the anti-Ron Paul.
In his 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns, Paul focused intently on presenting a truly “America first” foreign policy that advocated non-interventionism—maintaining a strong national defense while staying out of the messy affairs of other nations—as an alternative to the decades of repeated failures that have resulted from routine meddling in the affairs of foreign nations like Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Libya, and so on. Paul’s efforts did not result in electoral victories, but did have an undeniably powerful educational effect on the entire country and shifted the future of the Republican Party.
The resonance of Paul’s message was amplified by an increasingly war-weary public that had lost too many friends and loved ones in combat and observed the explosive growth of war-time debt, increased government spying on American citizens, and seeing few measurable signs of victory in return for all that was being lost.
Despite escalations in Islamic extremism abroad, polls show that even though fear of terrorism is on the rise, most Americans are still opposed to the type of aggressive interventions in Iraq, Iran, and Syria that Lindsey Graham is so strongly pushing and so clearly setting him apart from the vision that made Ron Paul a household name.
However, opposition to putting American boots on foreign soil is only one obstacle for Graham’s potential educational bid. Voters can be persuaded on tactics, but first they have to be persuaded on the credibility of the person making the proposition—that’s Graham’s challenge.
Graham has played the role of political “chicken little” for so long, it’s doubtful he’s retained the ability to craft a message that doesn’t give the distinct impression the sky is falling but, instead, warrants respect.
According to Graham, “we live in the most dangerous times imaginable.” If ISIS, with no air force, navy, or adequate intelligence agency aren’t stopped, Graham believes they pose an existential threat to the United States and we will “all get killed here at home.”
The absurdity of such a position is highlighted by Bruce Fein at The Washington Times:
ISIS‘ military capability is at most an ink blot compared to the United States. We have approximately 300 deployable battlefield ships — including aircraft carriers and submarines capable of launching ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads, complemented by 3,700 naval aircraft. ISIS has none. The U.S. Air Force can field approximately 6,000 aircraft with a capability of dropping nuclear bombs. ISIS has no aircraft. The United States possesses approximately 4,800 nuclear warheads. ISIS has none. The number of military personnel in the U.S. armed forces approximates 1.4 million. ISIS adherents approximate 15,000, although the number is soft. There is no agreed understanding of the earmarks of an ISIS member. The United States sports 450 active ballistic missiles. ISIS has none. The annual budget for the U.S. Department of Defense approximates $640 billion. ISIS‘ annual revenues approximate $2 billion. The U.S. population approximates 320 million. The number of persons under ISIS control approximates 2.8 million. The United States occupies 3,717, 813 square miles. ISIS controls 13,000 square miles. The United States has been engaged in perpetual global warfare since 9/11, or 13 years. ISIS is 3 years old.
In sum, anyone who believes ISIS is a non-trivial threat to ordinary Americans at home, at work, or at play would be frightened of their shadows.
Although adding Graham’s “we’re all going to die” rhetorical style to primary debates would ensure the upcoming presidential cycle will be dramatic, it’s unlikely his potential attempt at mass-education would be met with receptive ears. Voters are unlikely to get behind a potential Bed-Wetter-in-Chief like Lindsey Graham, and that’s something to be grateful for.