Two National Journal reporters squared off over the fate or future of Sen. Ted Cruz in the wake of the government shutdown, Obamacare funding fight the Texas Republican championed and lost this week – or did he?
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Ted Cruz is either “finished,” or, “just getting started.”
Beth Reinhard takes the former stance, arguing that Cruz’s appeal is limited to his tea party fan base – a hardcore, principles-driven minority of the Republican electorate, significantly weakened by the shutdown fight Cruz championed unsuccessfully, and from which Republicans gained nothing but a weakened economy and battered approval ratings. That base, Reinhard says, will not carry a state election — let alone a national one.
“He’s a niche candidate who is only popular in talk-radio fantasy land,” said Steve Schmidt, a top adviser to 2008 nominee John McCain.
Polls are already capturing the disconnect between the conservative grassroots and the rest of the country when it comes to the senator from Texas. Favorable views of Cruz among tea-party Republicans soared by 27 points since July, but unfavorable opinions among other adults jumped 15 points, according to the Pew Research Center.
Alex Rotary makes the latter argument, pointing out that establishment Republicans like John McCain and Mitt Romney have lost touch with a new and emerging activist base ignited by the confrontational style touted by tea party favorites like Cruz – evidenced in the last two presidential elections.
Now those same conservatives, the kind who control primaries in early voting states like Iowa and South Carolina, vow they won’t listen again in 2016. “We have a lot of people claiming to be conservatives who constantly score for the other team. And people are disgusted by it,” said Bob Vander Plaats, the Iowa social-conservative power broker.
And that’s where Cruz comes in. The firebrand’s 21-hour faux-filibuster and no-surrender strategy during the government shutdown fight has endeared him to activists. The party establishment, meanwhile, is decrying a man they consider an ideologue unwilling to compromise even when the politics go south. Stay away from Ted Cruz, they say.
The Republican establishment despises Ted Cruz. And that’s great news for the senator from Texas: It’s the most prominent sign that he’s the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination.
Both arguments are entirely sound political predictions, and in a way represent the bigger picture of a party struggling through a flux of identity crises since the end of the George W. Bush administration – with traditionally conservative”establishments” on the right, and the Washington outsider-perceived “activists” even further right.
The fate – or future – of Ted Cruz may not be decided by the actions of the freshman Texas senator and 2016 presidential hopeful at all, but the final determination of the future Republican Party.
Related articles
- Ted Cruz left fighting just for friends (rare.go-vip.net)
- McCain stands up to the Cruz, Lee faction (rare.go-vip.net)
- RNC walked a fine line during shutdown by supporting Cruz (news.yahoo.com)