Scientists Dramatically Change Their Estimate On Alien Communication To Near Improbability

It has been a wild 14 days for alien enthusiasts. A span that is not about to end in disappointment.

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We have seen NASA scientists get excited that we have hit an impressive number of exoplanets that could host alien life. If that was not enough, we have been crafting new messages and beaming them into space hoping to get a reply.

Both may be moot points as the new estimate is that humans are unlikely to get a reply for a long, long time. Like… basically never.

Universe Today reported that the new estimate — which ranges in a pretty ridiculous way, if you ask us — indicates that aliens could get back to us in as few as 2,000 years or as many as 400,000. A range that offers zero confidence, truthfully, because anyone can put that range out for anything and probably be correct. Giving yourself 398,000 years for padding is generous at best.

Apparently they have a pretty interesting formula that we will share to try and explain the situation, it is based on what many think is a flawed Drake Equation that tracks Communicating Extraterrestrial Intelligent Civilizations (CETIs). 

The study was published in The Astrophysical Journal.

Abstract: 

‘As the only known intelligent civilization, human beings are always curious about the existence of other communicating extraterrestrial intelligent civilizations (CETIs). Based on the latest astrophysical information, we carry out Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the number of possible CETIs within our Galaxy and the communication probability among them. Two poorly known parameters have a great impact on the results. One is the probability of life appearing on terrestrial planets and eventually evolving into a CETI (f_c), and the other determines at what stage of their host star’s evolution CETIs would be born (F). In order to ensure the completeness of the simulation, we consider a variety of combinations of f_c and F. Our results indicate that for optimistic situations (e.g., F = 25% and f_c = 0.1%), there could be  CETIs and they need to survive for  yr ( yr) to achieve one-way communication (two-way communication). In this case, human beings need to survive  Myr to receive one alien signal. For pessimistic situations (e.g., F = 75% and f_c = 0.001%), only  CETIs could be born and they need to survive for  Myr ( Myr) to achieve one-way communication (two-way communication). In this case, human beings need to survive  Myr to receive one signal from other CETIs. Our results may quantitatively explain why we have not detected any alien signals so far. The uncertainty of the results has been discussed in detail and would be alleviated with the further improvement of our astronomical observation ability in the future.’

If you didn’t understand all of that, you are not alone. But… basically, it reads as such:

If a CETI can emerge as early as the first 25 percent of the star’s lifetime, and limiting the theory to baseline each planet carrying only a 0.1 percent chance that the life-form develops into a CETI. Under that scenario, there would be over 42,000 CETIs spread out through the galaxy.. and all in different stages of their evolution.

Which, in theory, could only require a wait time of 2,000 years to achieve two-way communication with them. 

On the flip side of the debate, scientists believe that the sun would have to cool down much more and may have to cross to the first 75 percent of its life, which drops to a 0.001 percent probability that a CETI would emerge.

This adjustment to the theory would reduce the probability of CETIs occurring in the Milky Way to just 111, and two-way communication with one of these would happen in the next 400,000 years. 

Or, never.