Democrats are back to being hosed in 2014

It wasn’t too long ago that politics-watchers were speculating that Democrats might actually make gains in the 2014 congressional elections. Now, nobody thinks that and it looks like Dems are right back where they started — hosed.

After Republicans shot themselves in the foot with the shutdown it looked like Dems might capitalize. Now poll after poll shows that Dems are likely to lose seats in the House and may even lose their majority in the Senate.

From The New Republic:

Several new surveys show that the Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot—the one that emerged during the shutdown—has faded or even evaporated. The three live interview surveys conducted more than two weeks after the shutdown show a dead heat, with the Republicans gaining an average of a net-5 points over the previous survey. Fox News, the newest poll, even shows the Republicans ahead by three points among registered voters.

A “dead heat” among registered voters all but ends Democratic hopes of retaking the House, notwithstanding another political earthquake. They might not even gain seats, since Democrats hold more vulnerable districts than Republicans. Democrats hold 10 districts with a Cook PVI of R+2 or greater—the districts where, historically, the challenging party beats incumbents at a decent clip during “wave” elections, while there are only two Republicans holding districts with a PVI of D+2 or greater. There are even four Democrats in districts with a Cook PVI of R+7 or greater; there’s no Republican in a seat so Democratic. And historically, we would expect the combination of the president’s faltering approval rating and an off-year to make it very difficult for the president’s party to hold seats.

Instead the Senate reemerges as the real battleground. The Democrats probably remain favored to retain the chamber, as Republicans need an inside straight of sorts to gain six seats, but it’s hard to be sure. Thanks to the growing cost of public polling and struggling newspapers, there just isn’t much non-partisan, live-interview polling in states like North Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, and Arkansas. With the exception of Arkansas, my hunch is that these states at least “tilt” Democratic, but that’s a low confidence hunch.

If Republicans re-take the Senate you can almost kiss Obamacare goodbye as the health law will certainly have been center-stage in the elections and blue-state Democrats will be worried about their own reelections in 2016 and beyond. Recent polling shows that voters aren’t happy with incumbents who support Obamacare — as all Democrats have — and most support delaying the law’s individual mandate.

Democrats have more to lose too. The Senate is the only thing standing between Obama and an angry public. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has gone to great pains to shield the President and Senate Democrats from having to take votes on GOP proposals that could put the at odds with a public eager for solutions. If Democrats lose their Senate majority Obama will have nowhere to hide and will actually have to deal with House conservatives.

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