Rare News Desk
Last month we discussed how Republican Senator Pat Roberts was posting surprisingly soft poll numbers, raising the strange possibility that, in the event of an unexpected shake-up in the political environment, perhaps Kansas, a state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since the 1930s, might actually be in play in a year where all signs point toward strong GOP gains.
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Kansas Democrats have taken a surprisingly novel approach to manufacturing such a shake-up. Their nominee, Shawnee County District Attorney Chad Taylor, dropped out of the race last week.
That leaves independent candidate Greg Orman as the Republican incumbent’s main opposition, and in the first poll taken since the announcement, Orman comes out slightly ahead of Roberts, 37% to 36%, with 10% still favoring Taylor (Taylor’s name will likely still be on the ballot, though he is currently suing in an attempt to have it removed).
Orman is left of center by most measures, and there’s a good chance his support will hit a wall if voters perceive him as basically a Democrat. (That’s the thrust of the campaign Republicans are mounting against him.) But Roberts no longer has the easy path to reelection that he once had. Kansas moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican in our ratings.
Orman’s independent campaign adds another wrinkle. He’s been cagey about which party he’d caucus with if he’s elected, at least if he’s the deciding vote for the majority leadership. It’s a reasonable bet that he’d end up with the Democrats in that case, but he’s also said that “if one party is clearly in the majority, I will seek to caucus with the party that was [sic] in the majority as that would be in the best interest for the state of Kansas.”
That means the race can only become a toss-up if it looks like Democrats can hold fifty seats. If the GOP has banked a majority in other races, leaning Republican is as close as Kansas gets.
So, will the GOP bank such a majority?
It sure looks like it. We’re not ready to go as far as some forecasters, who not only predict a Republican majority but have started speculating about a sizable wave of GOP victories, but we have added another star to our map this week, indicating a Republican pick-up in Arkansas.
There have been five polls in Arkansas since the beginning of August, and GOP Rep. Tom Cotton has led incumbent Senator Mark Pryor in four of them. The race looks like it’s breaking toward Cotton, and Arkansas moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican.
Assuming the trend in Arkansas holds, that will make four pick-ups. Republicans need to net six seats to get to 51; there are still five toss-ups — all of them Democrat-held — and, even with Kansas in the mix, Republicans are in good shape to hold all their most vulnerable seats.
It’s not clear how big a majority Republicans can build, but a majority is most certainly in reach.
