These four reasons are why Obamacare will fail no matter what its website does

President Obama repeatedly says millions of uninsured Americans are eager to sign up for Obamacare—if only the website were working and Republicans weren’t being obstructionists. But a closer look at the uninsured numbers—47.3 million in 2012—raises real questions about just how many people will participate.

For example, about 25 percent of the uninsured are currently eligible for Medicaid, the federal-state health insurance program for the poor, but they have chosen not to enroll. While Medicaid recipients account for the large majority of people getting coverage since Obamacare’s disastrous rollout, it’s because the law makes more people eligible for “free”—in the sense that taxpayers foot the bill, not participants—coverage. Yet if the past is any predictor, millions of Medicaid-eligible Americans will remain uninsured.

In addition, the government estimates that about 45 percent of people are uninsured for less than six months. They may have had employer coverage, lost it in a job change, and will be covered again when they find a new job. Let that number sink in for a minute: nearly half of the uninsured are in that condition for a short period of time. Only about 15 percent are considered “chronically uninsured,” which means two years or more.

With respect to the preexisting condition issue, the Employee Benefit Research Institute’s analysis of 2012 Census Bureau data shows that nearly 60 percent of the uninsured describe themselves as in very good or excellent health. And that number rises to nearly 90 percent if you count those self-described as in good health. Being in good health means the vast majority would likely be able to get health insurance if they applied but didn’t.

Only 5.1 million uninsured Americans say they are in fair or poor health. Those are the ones who would most benefit from Obama’s requirement that health insurers accept anyone who applies regardless of their health condition.

To be sure, there are uninsured Americans with a major medical condition who could not get coverage. But the majority of states have a safety net program for them—covering about 200,000. Not nearly enough to justify throwing out actuarial principles and a massive government takeover of the health insurance system.

Moreover, many people have the money to buy coverage but didn’t; 6.7 percent of the uninsured make $75,000 a year or more. Most of them probably won’t get subsidies, and if they were unwilling to spend their own money before Obamacare, how much more likely will they be to spend it when the law has made health insurance much more expensive?

The biggest percentage of any category of uninsured belongs to non-citizens—45.2 percent of non-citizens are uninsured. The Census Bureau does not track whether respondents are here legally or illegally, but millions of those non-citizens are undocumented and are not legally entitled to any taxpayer-funded subsidies. They too will stay uninsured.

So, if you take those who (1) are temporarily uninsured and would be covered again soon, (2) are currently eligible for government insurance coverage like Medicaid but haven’t gone to the trouble of enrolling, (3) could easily afford coverage but don’t want to spend their own money, and (4) are here illegally and don’t qualify for Obamacare anyway, well, you can see the target recipients may be pretty small.

That’s not what Obama told us for the past five years, but then we’re getting used to hearing something other than the truth.

Related articles

• Even the uninsured hate Obamacare (rare.go-vip.net)
• Uninsured Americans uninterested in Obamacare (rare.go-vip.net)