Rare News Desk
It might be the world’s most unlikely outbreak. Jeb Bush fever has infected the Republican Party and is spreading virulently.
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Bush’s candidacy has long been derided as a fantasy of the establishment, taken seriously only in Georgetown humidors and on the Washington Post editorial page. But a recent WPA opinion research survey of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents found that, of the 2016 Republican contenders, Bush came in third with 11 percent of the vote, after Rand Paul and, oddly enough, Mike Huckabee. A CBS News poll from February found that the candidate who excited the most self-identified Republicans was Bush.
Since then, chatter from the punditocracy has swirled around Bush, much of it searching for an answer to this question: Is he a suicidal masochist? Bush, after all, has gone out of his way to antagonize the Tea Party and the conservative base. He recently said illegal immigrants are guilty of only “an act of love.” He heartily endorsed Common Core. All this led Chris Cillizza to question his intentions. Is he testing the waters? Or is he a forthright politician who doesn’t give a damn?
It’s possible Bush is just enjoying the warmth of the presidential speculation spotlight on his back, and has no intention of being a candidate for anything. But given the way he’s refused to rule out running (“Can I do it joyfully?” he wondered), it makes sense for conservatives to treat Bush not just as a contender, but as their chief antagonist on the 2016 GOP field.
If Bush wanted to keep quiet his support for Common Core, he could have easily done so. Politicians tailor their beliefs for public consumption all the time.
He’s clinging to these policies because they’re key parts of his message. It’s the compassionate conservatism of his brother, which sees the federal government as a potentially benevolent force that can nudge society in the right direction, rather than a necessary evil that has no business meddling in people’s lives. This is the battle line in the Republican civil war, and Jeb Bush is firmly planted on the other side.
This traces back to a looming problem for the right. Many in the Republican Party, especially among the donor and consultant classes, never engaged in any soul-searching after the Bush administration.
The mildewing compassionate conservative imperatives still hold, despite the flop of No Child Left Behind, the red ink of Medicare Part D, the bursting of housing “ownership society” policies, and, of course, the mayhem of Iraq. For those who cling to the past and resist conservatism’s recent libertarian tack, Jeb Bush is a suitable fit.
Foreign policy could be the sleeper issue of the 2016 election, and is the most contentious battle in the GOP civil war. While a Jeb Bush foreign policy has yet to be fleshed out, we have little reason to believe that he would be any different from his brother.
Bush recently attended a glitzy confab in Las Vegas hosted by the corpulent Republican mega-donor Sheldon Adelson—who once suggested detonating a nuclear device in Iran—and gave a speech where he bashed “neo-isolationism” and, according to Time, “impressed the pro-Israel group with his defense of muscular American foreign policy.”
Henry Kissinger recently said Bush would be an “outstanding” candidate. Kissinger has become the Seneca of the hawkish right, materializing in the shadows and philosophizing to callow GOP candidates. As Dan Balz reported, Kissinger met with Chris Christie in 2011 and the New Jersey governor admitted he hadn’t given much thought to foreign policy. “We can work with you on that,” Kissinger said.
Two years later, Christie was ripping Rand Paul’s libertarianism as “dangerous.” That Kissinger is now jazzed about Jeb is further evidence that Jeb is an unreformed hawk.
The donors and party bosses are pleading with Bush to run for president. They’re mounting primary challenges to anti-war Republicans like Justin Amash and Walter Jones. Sheldon Adelson’s friends say he could pour money into the 2016 Republican primary to suffocate Rand Paul.
Libertarian-minded conservatives need to understand that our fellow Republicans are gunning for us, and with more ammunition than ever. Much ink has been spilled deploring the bifurcated state of the GOP, but that division exists, and our side can’t pretend otherwise.
The only way to end the Republican civil war is to win it. A good place to start might be opposing Jeb Bush.
